2012 President · IA
Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 44%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.99% · Republican 46.18%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 51.988 − 46.178 = 5.810
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (5.810) = -2.810
- Absolute miss = |-2.810| = 2.810
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30634, race ID 665 (538 database).