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2012 President · WI

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.78% · Republican 45.94%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.776 − 45.938 = 6.838
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (6.838) = -5.838
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.838| = 5.838

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30645, race ID 701 (538 database).