Skip to content

2012 Governor · WA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 932 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.54% · Republican 48.46%

D+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.539 − 48.461 = 3.078
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.078) = -1.079
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.079| = 1.079

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30662, race ID 1267 (538 database).