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2012 Senate · WA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 932 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 39%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.45% · Republican 39.55%

D+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 39 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.451 − 39.549 = 20.902
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (20.902) = -2.902
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.902| = 2.902

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30662, race ID 1502 (538 database).