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2012 President · WA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 932 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 46%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.16% · Republican 41.30%

D+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 46 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.163 − 41.295 = 14.868
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (14.868) = -7.869
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.869| = 7.869

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30662, race ID 700 (538 database).