2012 House · ME-1
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 288 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 37%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 64.79% · Republican 35.21%
D+29.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 37 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 64.792 − 35.208 = 29.584
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (29.584) = -10.584
- Absolute miss = |-10.584| = 10.584
The poll overstated the Republican by 10.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30669, race ID 5076 (538 database).