2012 President · ME
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 613 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.27% · Republican 40.98%
D+15.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 56.270 − 40.982 = 15.288
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (15.288) = -8.288
- Absolute miss = |-8.288| = 8.288
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30669, race ID 674 (538 database).