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2012 Senate · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 430 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 42%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.69% · Republican 44.59%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.690 − 44.588 = 9.102
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (9.102) = -3.102
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.102| = 3.102

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30678, race ID 1495 (538 database).