2012 President · FL
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 45%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.877) = 1.123
- Absolute miss = |1.123| = 1.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30686, race ID 662 (538 database).