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2012 Senate · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,563 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 57%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.62% · Republican 56.46%

R+15.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 57 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.623 − 56.456 = -15.833
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-15.833) = -5.167
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.167| = 5.167

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30691, race ID 1498 (538 database).