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2012 President · NM

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 650 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 43%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.99% · Republican 42.84%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.993 − 42.843 = 10.150
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (10.150) = -4.149
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.149| = 4.149

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30695, race ID 685 (538 database).