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2012 Senate · MN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 790 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 32%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.23% · Republican 30.53%

D+34.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 32 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.229 − 30.528 = 34.701
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (34.701) = -6.701
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.701| = 6.701

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30697, race ID 1484 (538 database).