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2012 President · MN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 790 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.65% · Republican 44.96%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.652 − 44.958 = 7.694
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (7.694) = -0.694
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.694| = 0.694

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30697, race ID 676 (538 database).