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2012 Senate · CT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 895 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.45% · Republican 39.99%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.454 − 39.991 = 12.463
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (12.463) = -10.463
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.463| = 10.463

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30702, race ID 1475 (538 database).