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2012 President · CT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 895 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 39%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.06% · Republican 40.73%

D+17.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.057 − 40.725 = 17.332
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (17.332) = -2.331
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.331| = 2.331

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30702, race ID 659 (538 database).