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2012 Senate · WI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,225 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.41% · Republican 45.86%

D+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.409 − 45.860 = 5.549
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (5.549) = -4.549
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.549| = 4.549

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30704, race ID 1504 (538 database).