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2012 President · WI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,225 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.78% · Republican 45.94%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.776 − 45.938 = 6.838
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (6.838) = -2.838
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.838| = 2.838

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30704, race ID 701 (538 database).