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2012 Senate · NV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 732 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 49%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.71% · Republican 45.87%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 49 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.706 − 45.866 = -1.160
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-1.160) = -7.840
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.840| = 7.840

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30706, race ID 1489 (538 database).