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2012 President · NV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 732 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.36% · Republican 45.67%

D+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.356 − 45.675 = 6.681
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (6.681) = -2.681
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.681| = 2.681

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30706, race ID 686 (538 database).