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2012 Senate · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,621 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%

D+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (13.006) = -7.006
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.006| = 7.006

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30711, race ID 1477 (538 database).