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2012 House · MN-8

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 585 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.28% · Republican 45.39%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.282 − 45.388 = 8.894
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (8.894) = -6.894
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.894| = 6.894

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30735, race ID 5116 (538 database).