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2012 President · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 556 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 41%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.65% · Republican 44.96%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.652 − 44.958 = 7.694
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (7.694) = 3.306
  4. Absolute miss = |3.306| = 3.306

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30735, race ID 676 (538 database).