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2012 Senate · OH

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 44%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 44 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (6.001) = 3.999
  4. Absolute miss = |3.999| = 3.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30741, race ID 1494 (538 database).