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2012 President · NC

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 926 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 49.2% · Republican 49.4%

R+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.35% · Republican 50.39%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.2 − 49.4 = -0.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.351 − 50.393 = -2.042
  3. Signed miss = -0.20 − (-2.042) = 1.842
  4. Absolute miss = |1.842| = 1.842

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30745, race ID 680 (538 database).