2012 President · VA
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,165 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.16% · Republican 47.28%
D+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 51.156 − 47.283 = 3.873
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (3.873) = -2.873
- Absolute miss = |-2.873| = 2.873
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30746, race ID 698 (538 database).