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2012 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 789 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 40%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 42.52%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 40 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.611 − 42.518 = 12.093
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (12.093) = -3.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.093| = 3.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30749, race ID 1262 (538 database).