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2012 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 365 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.75% · Republican 45.98%

D+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.750 − 45.985 = 3.765
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (3.765) = -3.765
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.765| = 3.765

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30749, race ID 5137 (538 database).