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2012 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 411 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 40%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.17% · Republican 45.34%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 40 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.171 − 45.341 = 4.830
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (4.830) = 2.169
  4. Absolute miss = |2.169| = 2.169

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30749, race ID 5138 (538 database).