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2012 Senate · NV

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.71% · Republican 45.87%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.706 − 45.866 = -1.160
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.160) = -0.840
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.840| = 0.840

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30755, race ID 1489 (538 database).