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2012 President · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,096 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 46%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.49% · Republican 46.13%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.492 − 46.127 = 5.365
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (5.365) = 0.635
  4. Absolute miss = |0.635| = 0.635

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30756, race ID 658 (538 database).