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2012 Senate · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 803 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 41%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 41 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (6.001) = -3.001
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.001| = 3.001

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30761, race ID 1494 (538 database).