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2012 Senate · OH

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 680 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 43%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 43 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (6.001) = 2.999
  4. Absolute miss = |2.999| = 2.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30783, race ID 1494 (538 database).