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2012 House · SD-1

Nielson Brothers Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 612 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 54%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.55% · Republican 57.45%

R+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 54 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.550 − 57.450 = -14.900
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-14.900) = 1.899
  4. Absolute miss = |1.899| = 1.899

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30790, race ID 5248 (538 database).