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2012 House · ME-1

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 469 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 34%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 64.79% · Republican 35.21%

D+29.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 34 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 64.792 − 35.208 = 29.584
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (29.584) = -1.584
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.584| = 1.584

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30802, race ID 5076 (538 database).