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2012 House · ME-2

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 436 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.19% · Republican 41.81%

D+16.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.194 − 41.806 = 16.388
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (16.388) = -12.387
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.387| = 12.387

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30802, race ID 5077 (538 database).