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2012 President · ME

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 905 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53.3% · Republican 42.2%

D+11.1

The certified result

Democrat 56.27% · Republican 40.98%

D+15.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.3 − 42.2 = 11.10
  2. Actual margin = 56.270 − 40.982 = 15.288
  3. Signed miss = 11.10 − (15.288) = -4.188
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.188| = 4.188

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30802, race ID 674 (538 database).