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2012 President · M1

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 469 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56.7% · Republican 39%

D+17.7

The certified result

Democrat 59.57% · Republican 38.18%

D+21.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.7 − 39 = 17.70
  2. Actual margin = 59.568 − 38.176 = 21.392
  3. Signed miss = 17.70 − (21.392) = -3.693
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.693| = 3.693

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30803, race ID 8710 (538 database).