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2012 President · M2

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 436 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49.7% · Republican 45.7%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.94% · Republican 44.38%

D+8.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.7 − 45.7 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.940 − 44.379 = 8.561
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (8.561) = -4.561
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.561| = 4.561

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30804, race ID 8711 (538 database).