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2012 President · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 876 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.9% · Republican 47.2%

R+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.9 − 47.2 = -0.30
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = -0.30 − (0.877) = -1.177
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.177| = 1.177

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30806, race ID 662 (538 database).