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2010 Senate · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 612 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.37% · Republican 47.63%

D+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.365 − 47.635 = 4.730
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.730) = -1.730
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.730| = 1.730

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32556, race ID 1542 (538 database).