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2010 Governor · VT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.48% · Republican 47.69%

D+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.479 − 47.686 = 1.793
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (1.793) = -2.793
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.793| = 2.793

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32559, race ID 1308 (538 database).