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2010 Governor · CA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 448 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.77% · Republican 40.88%

D+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.770 − 40.885 = 12.885
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (12.885) = -8.885
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.885| = 8.885

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32565, race ID 1278 (538 database).