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2010 Senate · CT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.48% · Republican 43.22%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.484 − 43.217 = 9.267
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (9.267) = -4.267
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.267| = 4.267

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32567, race ID 1512 (538 database).