Skip to content

2010 Senate · OR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 652 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 34%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.22% · Republican 39.25%

D+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 34 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.224 − 39.249 = 17.975
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (17.975) = 4.025
  4. Absolute miss = |4.025| = 4.025

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32569, race ID 1536 (538 database).