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2010 Governor · HI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.22% · Republican 41.12%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.219 − 41.120 = 17.099
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (17.099) = -15.099
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.099| = 15.099

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32572, race ID 1283 (538 database).