2010 Governor · UT
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 58%
R+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.91% · Republican 64.07%
R+32.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 58 = -25.00
- Actual margin = 31.905 − 64.068 = -32.163
- Signed miss = -25.00 − (-32.163) = 7.163
- Absolute miss = |7.163| = 7.163
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32573, race ID 1307 (538 database).