2010 Senate · UT
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 31% · Republican 53%
R+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.76% · Republican 61.58%
R+28.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 31 − 53 = -22.00
- Actual margin = 32.762 − 61.583 = -28.821
- Signed miss = -22.00 − (-28.821) = 6.821
- Absolute miss = |6.821| = 6.821
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32573, race ID 1540 (538 database).