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2010 Governor · CO

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 10%

D+35.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.05% · Republican 11.14%

D+39.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 10 = 35.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.052 − 11.142 = 39.910
  3. Signed miss = 35.00 − (39.910) = -4.910
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.910| = 4.910

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32587, race ID 1279 (538 database).