2010 Senate · WI
St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 49%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.02% · Republican 51.86%
R+4.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 47.020 − 51.858 = -4.838
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-4.838) = 2.838
- Absolute miss = |2.838| = 2.838
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32592, race ID 1544 (538 database).