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2010 Governor · FL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.72% · Republican 48.87%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.722 − 48.871 = -1.149
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-1.149) = -4.852
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.852| = 4.852

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32593, race ID 1281 (538 database).